This is an opinion.
I’ve been thinking about this exact question for maybe the last 3 years. It seems like all of a sudden we have many more cases of people going missing in wild areas. I guess that’s because more people are hiking, etc. The
National Park Service numbers show visits well into the 300 millions from 2015 onwards. There was a drop for the pandemic, but now
the numbers are big-time breaking records. A similar thing is going on in Europe, so now
Mont Blanc is getting restricted.
With all these new people out in the wilderness, I notice the idea of “outdoor experience” got redefined. It seems like now a person can do a few hikes of 5 miles or so, and if they go missing, friends and family say they’re “experienced”. Then you go sleuth the reality, and it doesn’t look like that to you at all.
The problem is: what is inexperience, and what is ill-advised.
I guess I started to really think about this when a Canadian went missing in Joshua Tree in 2018. Friends and family said he was very experienced, but it was mid-July in the desert, as hot as it could possibly be. There was a Park Service sign at the trailhead warning against hiking the trail because it was too dangerous due to the heat. It was predicted to be maybe 120 degrees that day. There was no shade. But the man went out anyway. That, to me, is inexperience right there. Experience tells you there’s usually something behind Rangers’ directives, especially with stuff like weather warnings.
The NPS (and others) says it’s a 2-3 hour hike, even though it’s only 3 miles. The heat was going to hang you up, even if you were in good shape, and even if in cool conditions you could make it a quickie. Whatever time you left your car, it was going to be too hot in JNP to make the hike and be safe.
Fortynine Palms Oasis (U.S. National Park Service)
It was blazing and exposed. See the volunteers here:
Search continues for Joshua Tree hiker missing since July
This hiker wore dark shorts and a dark T-shirt. This is not what an experienced outdoor person (ha! like me) would wear in blazing 120 degree sunshine! You wear UV-protecting long sleeve shirt and long pants, so you don’t get sunburnt and to keep you cool by wicking ot your sweat and making it evaporate (which cools you down). And everyone knows you don’t wear black in sunshine because it absorbs heat and makes you super hot.
Then there was the thing with the water. It looked like he only had 3 liters of water with him (and maybe no Gatorade or other electrolytes?). I would drink way more in 2 hours roundtrip in that heat. But his family says he was well-prepared because there was water left over in his Camelbak, and this shows how experienced he was. To me, it shows the opposite: if he still had water, he didn’t drink enough for the distance he had hiked. I don’t care how many hikes he’d been on!
I can’t imagine the heat didn’t get to him. IMO he was in a problematic state from heatstroke that maybe made him disoriented and caused him to wander off. And he was likely dehydrated to boot.
So, yeah, I think we have to go sleuthing when people say their missing loved one is “experienced”. In the last few years, to me, it seems to be the opposite.
Good summary of this case:
'It has been a tough journey,' widow of Canadian Paul Miller says after remains found in Joshua Tree ID'd